Israel and the crisis of living with a nuclear Iran - 2

* Creation of a stable mutual deterrence
Deterrence in its simplest form is a special kind of social or political relationship in which one party tries to influence the behavior of the other party in its desired direction. In other words, deterrence means providing needed abilities in deterred country with the purpose that mentioned country be able to make needed decisions in order to convince the other side or to force it to ignore some specific attitudes or making the enemy to forbear their following goals. At the same time, deterrence does not mean deployment and use of the armed forces, but it rather means non-use of military force.
Since Israel has always faced with threats to its national survival has always put great stress on maintaining a strong and reliable ability to. Israel in order to fulfill its purposes in Middle East has used deterrence policy in two standard and non-standard level, however, by time passage, it came to the conclusion that by applying standard weapons it would not be able to reach its regional goals; therefore, it thought of nuclear weapon option.
The reasons for Israel to turn to nuclear weapons:
1. Disturbing the regional balance of power in favor of Israel:
Israel with acquisition of nuclear weapons has turned to great regional power and can continue without fear of attack to its territorial development policy. In this regard, historical changes have shown that after Israel achieving to domination in the field, Arabic countries could not began a war for recapturing their lands.
2. The initial failure in the Ramadan War (Yom Kippur) in 1973:
Although Israel from the very start of its establishment had tried to achieve the most advanced military technology and weapons, this issue did not change the behavior of Arab countries against Israel. In fact, conventional deterrence failed to stop the Arabs from attacking Israel. The regime after failure in the 1973 War concluded that in war with Arabic countries, standard weapons would not have needed ability and power; since in 1973 War what saved Israel from destruction was vast military aids of America to the regime.
3. Exiting from regional and international isolation:
Israel's acquisition of nuclear weapons could bring an end to the isolation of the regime and increase the reputation and position of the regime in the Middle East.
There are different views and attitudes within Israeli sovereignty about how Israel's nuclear deterrence should be applied to have the required influence on the behavior of Arabic and Islamic countries including:
1. A clear and formal declaration of having nuclear weapons;
They believe that if Israel openly declares the truth about its nuclear weapons, the mentioned deterrence will be to have more credibility.
2. Continuation of the policy of Nuclear Ambiguity;
Another view holds that Israel should possess nuclear weapons, but should not clearly and formally declare its existence. The view which is dominant and widely accepted attitude of Israel's leaders is based on ambiguous approach.
Israel now has 100 to 200 nuclear bombs, but so far has refused to publish clear information in this regard. Israeli leaders also give enigmatic and contradictory information about nuclear weapons. When the leaders of the Zionist regime are asked whether Israel has nuclear weapons or not, they respond that Israel would not be the first country in the Middle East which uses nuclear weapons.
In this regard, Israel following strategy of nuclear ambiguity has been done till today with various purposes:

A) Attracting the public opinion of the Jews to reputation and power of the Israel;

The regime publishing vague information in this regard brings mental peace for Israeli citizens, and in the time of crisis situations strengthens their will for military service.

B) Providing background for the return of all the world's Jews to Israel;

In decades 70 and 80, when the emigration of Jews to Israel finished, Israelis repeatedly published their news about nuclear weapons and had vast advertisements in this regard to show the stability and power of their country, so in this way they could ensure the world's Jews to migrate to Israel.

C) Making the Arabs and Muslims understand this thing that destroying Israel is futile;

For the Israelis, such deterrent threats will finally force the Arabs to surrender the wishes of Israel in the Middle East.

D) Pretending of not having nuclear weapons in the West public opinion;

In the light of such a strategy the regime will appear as desirable country in public opinion of the West. Tel Aviv's purpose of presenting such a picture of himself before the West public opinion is attracting the most political, economic and military aids.

N) Lack of making political impasse for the United States;

Clear policy and vivid statement of Israel about the existence of nuclear weapons in the regime will put the United States, which is allegiant with the regime, in impasse; as America has repeatedly announced that Middle Eastern countries could never have nuclear weapons.
However, from Israel's perspective, the development of nuclear capabilities by Iran and the formation of a multipolar nuclear environment end to Israel's nuclear monopoly and fundamentally will be change of strategic deterrence in all its original aspects.
In this context, it will be difficult to maintain Israel's policy of nuclear ambiguity. Now, movement of submarines and disperse of ballistic missiles in clearer form than in the past represents that the regime has changed their tactics on the field. Meanwhile, more advanced warheads for these systems require experiments which can make changes in nuclear policy of Israel.
So far, Israel has been denied the use of nuclear weapons, but it has been tactical policy and is not ethical or absolute. In this regard, some Israeli experts know the Middle East's potential nuclear and especially Iran as a threat and a sufficient reason for any kind of pre-emptive action and abandoning the policy of nuclear ambiguity.